Effects of lifestyle-related risk factors on life expectancy: A comprehensive model for use in early prevention of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases.

Morbidity and premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases can be largely prevented by adopting a healthy lifestyle at the earliest possible age. However, tools designed for the early identification of those at risk among young adults are lacking. We developed and validated a multivariable model for the prediction of life expectancy, allowing the early identification of apparently healthy adults at risk of lifestyle-related diseases. We used a cross-sectional approach to calculate life expectancy using data from 38,481 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2014), aged ≥20 years. A multivariable logistic model was used to quantify the impact of risk factors on mortality. The model included the following lifestyle-related mortality risk factors as predictors: smoking, diet, physical activity, and body mass index. The presence of the following chronic diseases was considered: diabetes, arrhythmia, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, and malignant neoplasms. The model showed a good predictive ability; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measure was 0.846 (95% uncertainty interval 0.838-0.859). Life expectancy was determined using the life table method and the period life tables for the US population as the baseline. The results of this model underscore the importance of lifestyle-related risk factors in life expectancy. The difference between life expectancy for 30-year-old individuals with lifestyle characteristics ranked in 90% and 10% of their gender and age groups was 23 years for males and 18 years for females, whereas in 75% and 25%, it was 14 years for males and 10 years for females. In addition to early risk identification, the model estimates the deferred effect of lifestyle and the impact of lifestyle changes on life expectancy. Thus, it can be used in early prevention to demonstrate the potential risks and benefits of complex lifestyle modifications for educational purposes or to motivate behavioral changes.

Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Dementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity. METHODS: Population-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002-03) to wave 9 (2018-19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002-06, 2004-08, 2006-10, 2008-12, 2010-14, 2012-16, and 2014-18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend. FINDINGS: Incidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03-1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62-1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast. INTERPRETATION: Dementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large. FUNDING: UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of the impact of public health interventions targeting hypertension usually focus on one health outcome. This study aims to consider the effects of change in future hypertension prevalence on mortality, dementia, and disability simultaneously. METHODS: We modelled three plausible scenarios based on observed trends of hypertension prevalence from 2003 to 2017 in England: observed trends continue (baseline scenario); 2017 prevalence remains unchanged; and 2017 prevalence decreases by 50% by 2060. We used a probabilistic Markov model to integrate calendar trends in incidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast their future occurrence in the population of England and Wales. Assuming the hypertension prevalence trend modifies health transition probabilities, we compared mortality outcomes and the burden of dementia and disability to 2060 for the scenarios. FINDINGS: If the decline in hypertension prevalence stops, there would be a slight increase in the number of additional deaths to 2060 (22·9 [95% uncertainty interval 19·0-26·6] more deaths per 100 000 population), although the burdens of disability and dementia in absolute terms would change little. Alternatively, if the downward hypertension prevalence trend accelerates (with prevalence falling by 50% between 2017 and 2060), there would be a modest additional reduction in deaths (57·0 [50·4-63·5] fewer deaths per 100 000 population), a small increase in dementia burden (9·0 [5·1-13·2] more cases per 100 000 population), no significant effect on disability burden, and an 8% gain in healthy life expectancy at age 65 years from 2020 to 2060 (5·3 years vs 4·9 years) compared with the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: The major future impact of alternative hypertension prevention strategies appears to be on future life expectancy. The salutary effect of lower population blood pressure distribution on incidence of dementia and disability might not offset expansion of the susceptible population due to reduced mortality. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Concordance/discordance between serum apolipoprotein B, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol in NATPOL 2011 participants - An epidemiological perspective.

BACKGROUND: The study compared the distribution of serum LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (apoB) among participants of the NATPOL 2011 survey and analysed concordance/discordance of results in the context of the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS: Serum levels of apoB, LDL-C, non-HDL-C and small dense LDL-C were measured/calculated in 2067-2098 survey participants. The results were compared between women and men, age groups and in relation to body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and TG levels, and the presence of CVD. Percentile distribution of lipid levels and concordance/discordance analysis were based on medians and ESC/EAS 2019 target thresholds for ASCVD risk and on comparison of measured apoB levels and levels calculated from linear regression equations with serum LDL- C and non-HDL-C as independent variables. RESULTS: Serum apoB, LDL-C and non-HDL-C were similarly related to sex, age, BMI, visceral obesity, cardiovascular disease, and fasting glucose and triglyceride levels. Serum apoB, LDL-C and non-HDL-C very high- and moderate- target thresholds were exceeded in 83%, 99% and 96.9% and in 41%, 75% and 63.7% of subjects, respectively. The incidence of the discordances between the results depended on the dividing values used and ranged from 0.2% to 45.2% of the respondents. Subjects with high apoB / low LDL-C/non-HDL-C discordance had features of metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic discordances between apoB and LDL-C/non-HDL-C indicate limitations of serum LDL-C/non-HDL-C in ASCVD risk management. Due to the high apoB/low LDL-C/non-HDL-C discordance, obese/metabolic syndrome patients may benefit from replacing LDL-C/non-HDL-C by apoB in ASCVD risk assessment and lipid-lowering therapy.

Growing old in China in socioeconomic and epidemiological context: systematic review of social care policy for older people.

BACKGROUND: From 2020 to 2050, China's population aged ≥65 years old is estimated to more than double from 172 million (12·0%) to 366 million (26·0%). Some 10 million have Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, to approach 40 million by 2050. Critically, the population is ageing fast while China is still a middle-income country. METHODS: Using official and population-level statistics, we summarise China's demographic and epidemiological trends relevant to ageing and health from 1970 to present, before examining key determinants of China's improving population health in a socioecological framework. We then explore how China is responding to the care needs of its older population by carrying out a systematic review to answer the question: 'what are the key policy challenges to China achieving an equitable nationwide long-term care system for older people?'. Databases were screened for records published between 1st June 2020 and 1st June 2022 in Mandarin Chinese or English, reflecting our focus on evidence published since introduction of China's second long-term care insurance pilot phase in 2020. RESULTS: Rapid economic development and improved access to education has led to widescale internal migration. Changing fertility policies and household structures also pose considerable challenges to the traditional family care model. To deal with increasing need, China has piloted 49 alternative long-term care insurance systems. Our findings from 42 studies (n = 16 in Mandarin) highlight significant challenges in the provision of quality and quantity of care which suits the preference of users, varying eligibility for long-term care insurance and an inequitable distribution of cost burden. Key recommendations include increasing salaries to attract and retain staff, introduction of mandatory financial contributions from employees and a unified standard of disability with regular assessment. Strengthening support for family caregivers and improving smart old age care capacity can also support preferences to age at home. CONCLUSIONS: China has yet to establish a sustainable funding mechanism, standardised eligibility criteria and a high-quality service delivery system. Its long-term care insurance pilot studies provide useful lessons for other middle-income countries facing similar challenges in terms of meeting the long-term care needs of their rapidly growing older populations.

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the 65 or over Polish population. Report of cross-sectional NOMED-AF study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, characterized by an increased risk of thromboembolic complications that can be markedly reduced with anticoagulation. There is a paucity of studies assessing the total prevalence of AF in national populations. AIMS: To assess the nationwide prevalence of AF in a population of adults ≥65 old and to determine the impact of duration of electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring on the number of newly detected AF episodes. METHODS: The NOMED-AF study (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT: 0324347) was a cross-sectional study performed on a nationally representative random sample of 3014 Polish citizens 65 years or older. Final estimates were adjusted to the national population. All participants underwent up to 30 days of continuous ECG monitoring. Total AF prevalence was diagnosed based on the patient's medical records or the presence of AF in ECG monitoring. RESULTS: The prevalence of AF in the Polish population ≥65 years was estimated as 19.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-20.6%). This included 4.1% (95% CI, 3.5%-4.8%) newly diagnosed cases and 15.1% (95% CI, 13.9%-16.3%) previously diagnosed cases and consisted of 10.8% (95% CI, 9.8%-11.9%) paroxysmal AF and 8.4% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.4%) persistent/permanent AF. The incidence of all paroxysmal AF events as a function of ECG monitoring duration increased from 1.9% (95% CI, 1.4%-2.6%) at 24 hours to 6.2% (95% CI, 5.3%-7.2%) at 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of AF in elderly adults is higher than estimated based on medical records only. Four weeks of monitoring compared to 24-hour ECG Holter allow detection of 7-fold more cases of previously undiagnosed paroxysmal AF.

The prevalence of dyspnea in the adult Polish population.

OBJECTIVES: Dyspnea is one of the most predominant symptom in clinical practice. There is a lack of data about incidents of dyspnea among Polish adults therefore it would be important to establish prevalence of this symptom before COVID-19 pandemic to assess the impact of this infection on the functioning of the adult Polish population in the future. The aim of the study was to establish prevalence of dyspnea in adult Polish population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: It was an observational-cross-sectional study, with representative sample of adult Poles aged 18-79 years. The 2413 participants were surveyed. Responders were asked if and when dyspnea occurs and what is its severity in relation to 1 of 4 categories (A, B, C, and D) describing the impact of dyspnea on reduced exercise tolerance and daily activities. RESULTS: The 67.1% of the respondents answered negatively to all question about experiencing dyspnea (females (F) 61% vs. males (M) 74%, p < 0.05). Dyspnea only during intense physical exertion (A), was reported by 22.8% (F 26.2% vs. M 19.2%, p = 0.07). Dyspnea limiting daily activities (B, C and D) was reported by 10.1% (F 13.1% vs. M 7%, p < 0.05). Significant differences in the severity of dyspnea were found between the age groups. People diagnosed with chronic heart failure or lung diseases significantly more often reported dyspnea than people without these conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Every tenth Pole reported dyspnea limiting performing activities of daily living. Additionally, about 20% of Poles experienced dyspnea considered as "gray area," only during intense physical exertion, that requires deepening and clarifying the medical history. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(6):747-52.

Is there a common latent cognitive construct for dementia estimation across two Chinese cohorts?

Introduction: It is valuable to identify common latent cognitive constructs for dementia prevalence estimation across Chinese aging cohorts. Methods: Based on cognitive measures of 12015 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS; 13 items) and 6623 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS; 9 items) participants aged 65 to 99 in 2018, confirmatory factor analysis was applied to identify latent cognitive constructs, and to estimate dementia prevalence compared to Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and nationwide estimates of the literature. Results: A common three-factor cognitive construct of orientation, memory, and executive function and language was found for both cohorts with adequate model fits. Crude dementia prevalence estimated by factor scores was similar to MMSE in CLHLS, and was more reliable in CHARLS. Age-standardized dementia estimates of CLHLS were lower than CHARLS among those aged 70+, which were close to the nationwide prevalence reported by the COAST study and Global Burden of Disease. Discussion: We verified common three-factor cognitive constructs for both cohorts, providing an approach to estimate dementia prevalence at the national level. Highlights: Common three-factor cognitive constructs were identified in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).Crude dementia estimates using factor scores were reliable in both cohorts.Estimates of CHARLS were close to current evidence, but higher than that of CLHLS.

Reference values for MRI-derived psoas and paraspinal muscles and macroscopic fat infiltrations in paraspinal muscles in children.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia, defined as loss of skeletal muscle mass, is a novel term associated with adverse outcomes in children. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a safe and precise technique for measuring tissue compartments and is commonly used in most routine paediatric imaging protocols. Currently, there is a lack of MRI-derived normative data which can help in determining the level of sarcopenia. This study aimed to introduce reference values of total psoas muscle area (tPMA), total paraspinal muscle area (tPSMA), and total macroscopic fat infiltrations of the PSMA (tMFI). METHODS: In this retrospective study, the local database was searched for abdominal and pelvic region MRI studies of children aged from 1 to 18 years (mean age (standard deviation (SD)) of 9.8 (5.5) years) performed in the years 2010-2021. Children with chronic diseases and a history of surgical interventions were excluded from the analysis. Finally, a total of 465 healthy children (n = 233 girls, n = 232 boys) were enrolled in the study. The values of the tPMA, tPMSA, and tMFI were measured in square centimetres (cm2 ) at the level of the L4/L5 intervertebral disc as the sum of the left and right regions. Age-specific and sex-specific muscle, fat, and body mass index percentile charts were constructed using the LMS method. Inter-observer agreement and intra-observer reproducibility were assessed using the Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Both tPMA and tPSMA showed continuous increases in size (in cm2 ) throughout all age groups. At the age of 18, the median tPMA areas reached 26.37 cm2 in girls and 40.43 cm2 in boys. Corresponding tPSMA values were higher, reaching the level of 40.76 cm2 in girls and 56.66 cm2 in boys. The mean value of tMFI within the paraspinal muscles was 5.0% (SD 3.65%) of their total area in girls and 3.5% (SD 2.25%) in boys with the actual difference between sexes up to 0.96 cm2 . Excellent intra-observer reproducibility and inter-observer agreement were noted. Actual mean differences for tPMA were at the level of 0.43 and 0.39 cm2 , respectively. Mean bias for tPSMA was 0.1 cm2 for inter-observer and 0.05 cm2 for intra-observer measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate novel and highly reproducible sex-specific MRI-derived reference values of tPMS, tPSMA, and tMFI at the level of the L4/L5 intervertebral disc for children from 1 to 18 years old, which may guide a clinician in the assessment of sarcopenia, a prognostic outcome marker in children.

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia and disability. METHODS: Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau-age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall-age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). FINDINGS: The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. INTERPRETATION: After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.

Health status and its socio-economic covariates in the older population in Poland - the assumptions and methods of the nationwide, cross-sectional PolSenior2 survey.

INTRODUCTION: Population ageing constitutes an increasing medical, social, and economic burden worldwide. Optimal senior policy should be based on well-assessed knowledge on the prevalence and control of age-related diseases, multimorbidity, disabilities, and their social determinants. The objective of this paper is to describe the assumptions, methods, and sampling procedures of the PolSenior2 survey, which was aimed at characterising the health status of old and very-old adults in Poland. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The project was conducted in the period 2018-2019 as a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of people aged 60 years and over. Subjects were selected using three-stage stratified and proportional random sampling in seven equally sized (n = 850) age groups. The study protocol consisted of face-to-face interviews, specific geriatric scales and tests, and anthropometric and blood pressure measurements performed by well-trained nurses at participants homes as well as blood and urine sample laboratory tests. RESULTS: In the Polsenior2 study a group of 5987 subjects underwent the questionnaire parts of the survey, and almost all (n = 5823) agreed to blood or urine sample collection. CONCLUSIONS: In recent decades several studies focused on various aspects of elderly health and life conditions had been carried out in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe. However, none of them is so complex and has covered so many issues as PolSenior2, which is the largest study devoted to the health status of older persons in Poland and one of the largest and the most comprehensive in Europe. The results of the study will help to improve health policy targeted at the elderly population in Poland.

Prevalence of self­reported heart failure in the adult Polish population: results of the NATPOL 2011 study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a growing medical and economic problem, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. However, only a few studies analyzed the prevalence of CHF in this region. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of CHF in a representative sample of adult Poles. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The NATPOL 2011 project was a cross­sectional study of a representative sample of the adult Polish population that included 2413 individuals (1245 women, 1168 men) aged 18 to 79 years (mean [SD] age, 45.8 [16.7] years). All participants completed a detailed questionnaire and underwent laboratory tests. We evaluated the prevalence of CHF based on self­reported symptoms, Pol-ish National Health Fund database, and the N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT­proBNP) level. RESULTS: The proportion of patients that reported the diagnosis of CHF was 4.3% (95% CI, 3.6%-5.2%). Only 0.2% of people aged under 40 years reported CHF, compared with 3.2% of those aged 40 to 59 years and 13.2% of those aged 60 to 79 years. The distribution of NT­proBNP levels in the patients with CHF was markedly skewed to the right, with the median value of 181 pg/ml (interquartile range, 90.8-531). Among the 104 individuals who declared having CHF, almost 56% had a record of at least 1 outpatient visit or hospitalization related to the ICD­10 I50 code in the National Health Fund database, which translates to 2.4% of confirmed diagnoses of CHF in all Polish adults. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study indicated that the proportion of inhabitants of Poland aged 18 to 79 years with heart failure was somewhere between 2.4% and 4.3%. This corresponds to 720 000 to 1 200 000 of diagnosed CHF cases in Poland.

MRI-Derived Subcutaneous and Visceral Adipose Tissue Reference Values for Children Aged 6 to Under 18 Years.

The assessment of body composition in pediatric population is essential for proper nutritional support during hospitalization. However, currently available methods have limitations. This study aims to propose a novel approach for nutrition status assessment and introduce magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived subcutaneous and visceral fat normative reference values. A total of 262 healthy subjects aged from 6 to 18 years underwent MRI examinations and anthropometric measurements. MRI images at the second lumbar vertebrae were used by two radiologists to perform the semi-automatic tissue segmentation. Based on obtained adipose tissue surface areas and body mass index (BMI) scores sex-specific standard percentile curves (3rd, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 97th) and z-scores were constructed using LMS method. Additionally, 85th and 95th centiles of subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue were proposed as equivalents of overweight and obesity. Bland-Altman plots revealed an excellent intra-observer reproducibility and inter-observer agreement. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate highly reproducible method and suggest that MRI-derived reference values can be implemented in clinical practice.

StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia are common stroke outcomes, with significant health and societal implications for aging populations. These outcomes are not included in current epidemiological models. We aimed to develop an epidemiological model to project incidence and prevalence of stroke, poststroke CIND and dementia, and life expectancy, in Ireland to 2035, informing policy and service planning. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (the StrokeCog model) applied to the Irish population aged 40 to 89 years to 2035. Data sources included official population and hospital-episode statistics, longitudinal cohort studies, and published estimates. Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Results were externally validated against independent sources. The model tracks poststroke progression into health states characterized by no cognitive impairment, CIND, dementia, disability, stroke recurrence, and death. RESULTS: We projected 69 051 people with prevalent stroke in Ireland in 2035 (22.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 20.8-23.1]), with 25 274 (8.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 7.1-9.0]) of those projected to have poststroke CIND, and 12 442 having poststroke dementia (4.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 3.2-4.8]). We projected 8725 annual incident strokes in 2035 (2.8 per 1000 population [95% CI, 2.7-2.9]), with 3832 of these having CIND (1.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), and 1715 with dementia (0.5 per 1000 population [95% CI, 0.5-0.6]). Life expectancy for stroke survivors at age 50 was 23.4 years (95% CI, 22.3-24.5) for women and 20.7 (95% CI, 19.5-21.9) for men. CONCLUSIONS: This novel epidemiological model of stroke, poststroke CIND, and dementia draws on the best available evidence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that findings were robust to assumptions, and where there was uncertainty a conservative approach was taken. The StrokeCog model is a useful tool for service planning and cost-effectiveness analysis and is available for adaptation to other national contexts.

Predicting Silent Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly: A Report from the NOMED-AF Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Silent atrial fibrillation (SAF) is common and is associated with poor outcomes. AIMS: to study the risk factors for AF and SAF in the elderly (≥65 years) general population and to develop a risk stratification model for predicting SAF. METHODS: Continuous ECG monitoring was performed for up to 30 days using a vest-based system in a cohort from NOMED-AF, a cross-sectional study based on a nationwide population sample. The independent risk factors for AF and SAF were determined using multiple logistic regression. ROC analysis was applied to validate the developed risk stratification score. RESULTS: From the total cohort of 3014 subjects, AF was diagnosed in 680 individuals (mean age, 77.5 ± 7.9; 50.1% men) with AF, and, of these, 41% had SAF. Independent associations with an increased risk of AF were age, male gender, coronary heart disease, thyroid diseases, prior ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (ICS/TIA), diabetes, heart failure, chronic kidney disease (CKD), obesity, and NT-proBNP >125 ng/mL. The risk factors for SAF were age, male gender, ICS/TIA, diabetes, heart failure, CKD, and NT-proBNP >125 ng/mL. We developed a clinical risk scale (MR-DASH score) that achieved a good level of prediction in the derivation cohort (AUC 0.726) and the validation cohort (AUC 0.730). CONCLUSIONS: SAF is associated with various clinical risk factors in a population sample of individuals ≥65 years. Stratifying individuals from the general population according to their risk for SAF may be possible using the MR-DASH score, facilitating targeted screening programs of individuals with a high risk of SAF.

Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England commission the NHS Health Check programme to invite everyone aged 40-74 years without pre-existing conditions for risk assessment and eventual intervention, if needed. However, the programme's effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity impact remain uncertain. AIM: To develop a validated open-access flexible web-based model that enables local commissioners to quantify the cost-effectiveness and potential for equitable population health gain of the NHS Health Check programme. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were as follows: (1) co-produce with stakeholders the desirable features of the user-friendly model; (2) update the evidence base to support model and scenario development; (3) further develop our computational model to allow for developments and changes to the NHS Health Check programme and the diseases it addresses; (4) assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity of alternative strategies for implementation to illustrate the use of the tool; and (5) propose a sustainability and implementation plan to deploy our user-friendly computational model at the local level. DESIGN: Co-production workshops surveying the best-performing local authorities and a systematic literature review of strategies to increase uptake of screening programmes informed model use and development. We then co-produced the workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) model to estimate the health, economic and equity impact of different NHS Health Check programme implementations, using illustrative-use cases. SETTING: Local authorities in England. PARTICIPANTS: Stakeholders from local authorities, Public Health England, the NHS, the British Heart Foundation, academia and other organisations participated in the workshops. For the local authorities survey, we invited 16 of the best-performing local authorities in England. INTERVENTIONS: The user interface allows users to vary key parameters that represent programme activities (i.e. invitation, uptake, prescriptions and referrals). Scenarios can be compared with each other. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Disease cases and case-years prevented or postponed, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, net monetary benefit and change in slope index of inequality. RESULTS: The survey of best-performing local authorities revealed a diversity of effective approaches to maximise the coverage and uptake of NHS Health Check programme, with no distinct 'best buy'. The umbrella literature review identified a range of effective single interventions. However, these generally need to be combined to maximally improve uptake and health gains. A validated dynamic, stochastic microsimulation model, built on robust epidemiology, enabled service options analysis. Analyses of three contrasting illustrative cases estimated the health, economic and equity impact of optimising the Health Checks, and the added value of obtaining detailed local data. Optimising the programme in Liverpool can become cost-effective and equitable, but simply changing the invitation method will require other programme changes to improve its performance. Detailed data inputs can benefit local analysis. LIMITATIONS: Although the approach is extremely flexible, it is complex and requires substantial amounts of data, alongside expertise to both maintain and run. CONCLUSIONS: Our project showed that the workHORSE model could be used to estimate the health, economic and equity impact comprehensively at local authority level. It has the potential for further development as a commissioning tool and to stimulate broader discussions on the role of these tools in real-world decision-making. FUTURE WORK: Future work should focus on improving user interactions with the model, modelling simulation standards, and adapting workHORSE for evaluation, design and implementation support. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019132087. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The NHS Health Check programme is available for adults aged 40­74 years in England to find the early risk of heart disease, cancers, lung disease and dementia, and lower that risk. However, some studies have suggested that the current scheme could perhaps be improved. We systematically looked at previous studies to understand what makes a screening programme successful. We also contacted local authorities with the best NHS Health Check programmes to find out how they were being delivered so well. The most successful local authorities highlighted a wide variety of methods for achieving success. All had concrete plans in place for delivery, including different approaches for encouraging more adults to participate. We further developed our existing computer model into a web-based tool [workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment)]. This tool can help those responsible for commissioning NHS Health Checks to further improve the delivery of their local programme. We held four workshops with relevant professionals to develop the workHORSE model. These workshops resulted in a useful 'real-world' tool for local commissioners: a tool that can calculate the current and potential future benefits of different programmes. We used the model to show how commissioners can explore and compare a variety of different programmes. We found that combining several improvements can be useful. However, this provides modest benefits in improving health and value for money. At the same time, the impact on reducing inequalities is less clear and depends on the interventions used. Our results suggest that: a variety of successful approaches can be used to help increase the uptake of screening programmes such as NHS Health Checksjointly developing a computer model with end-users leads to a more user-friendly and relevant model to improve the programmethe stage is now set for further work to identify the best approach in each local area.

Association between cardiovascular diseases and depressive symptoms in adults. A pooled analysis of population-based surveys: WOBASZ, NATPOL 2011, and WOBASZ II.

INTRODUCTION Psychosocial risk factors play an important role in the origins of cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of depressive symptoms (DSs) in relation to some sociodemographic characteristics and selected cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and to assess the relationship between self­reported CVDs and the severity of DSs. PATIENTS AND METHODS Three cross­sectional population­based surveys: WOBASZ (2003-2005), NATPOL 2011 (2011), and WOBASZ II (2013-2014) covered a total sample of 20 514 participants (9614 men and 10 900 women), aged 20 to 74 years, who all completed the Beck Depression Inventory. RESULTS One­fifth of men and one­third of women had DSs. The prevalence of DSs increased with age, was higher in unmarried persons and in individuals with a medical history of CVDs, and decreased with increasing education level. Individuals with DSs, both men and women, even those with borderline depression, had from 1.5- to more than 2­fold higher odds of either coronary artery disease or arrhythmia, and 2- to almost 4­fold higher chance of previous stroke in their medical history. CONCLUSIONS This study showed that DSs were a frequently observed condition in the general Polish population including patients with CVDs. We also demonstrated that there is a relationship between self­reported CVDs and severity of DSs regardless of age, marital status, education, and concomitant disorders.

Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030. METHODS: We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&V into changes in F&V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&V production. RESULTS: We found that increasing land use for F&V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived. CONCLUSION: Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.

Socioeconomic correlates and biochemical profiles of smokers in Poland: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies have shown a fairly constant association between the socioeconomic status and smoking. However, associations between smoking and the biological indicators of health status have not been well described yet. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the relationship among smoking, biochemical risk factors, and sociodemographic characteristics in the Polish population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A survey was carried out in a representative sample of Polish residents aged 18 to 79 years. A total of 2413 randomly selected subjects participated in the survey. Logistic regression analysis as well as parametrical and nonparametrical tests were performed. RESULTS: Significantly higher cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and potassium levels were observed in smoking women and men compared with the nonsmoking population. Significantly lower bilirubin levels were noted in smoking individuals. Higher C­reactive protein and lower creatinine levels were reported only in the smoking male population compared with nonsmokers. There was a significant inverse gradient in the relationship between income and smoking. Single women and men were at greater risk of being smokers (odds ratio [OR], 1.9 and 2.39, respectively). Individuals from small towns (less than 50 000 inhabitants) were at significantly greater risk of smoking compared with those living in rural areas (OR, 1.45 and 1.64 in women and men, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We found differences regarding socioeconomic characteristics and major biochemical parameters between smokers and nonsmokers in Poland. However, it is difficult to establish which associations are causal for cardiovascular risk owing to the cross­sectional design of this study.

Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis.

Distributional cost effectiveness analysis is a new method that can help to redesign prevention programmes by explicitly modelling the distribution of health opportunity costs as well as the distribution of health benefits. Previously we modelled cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening audit data from Liverpool, UK to see if the city could redesign its cardiovascular screening programme to enhance its cost effectiveness and equity. Building on this previous analysis, we explicitly examined the distribution of health opportunity costs and we looked at new redesign options co-designed with stakeholders. We simulated four plausible scenarios: a) no CVD screening, b) 'current' basic universal CVD screening as currently implemented, c) enhanced universal CVD screening with 'increased' population-wide delivery, and d) 'universal plus targeted' with top-up delivery to the most deprived fifth. We also compared assumptions around whether displaced health spend would come from programmes that might benefit the poor more and how much health these programmes would generate. The main outcomes were net health benefit and change in the slope index of inequality (SII) in QALYs per 100,000 person years. 'Universal plus targeted' dominated 'increased' and 'current' and also reduced health inequality by -0.65 QALYs per 100,000 person years. Results are highly sensitive to assumptions about opportunity costs and, in particular, whether funding comes from health care or local government budgets. By analysing who loses as well as who gains from expenditure decisions, distributional cost effectiveness analysis can help decision makers to redesign prevention programmes in ways that improve health and reduce health inequality.